Southern sustainability
This page is part of a series of supporting content to the Draft National Planning Framework 4 (Draft NPF4).
On this page we take a closer look at the South of Scotland and present some of the key evidence, maps and data that were useful in developing the Draft NPF4's Spatial Strategy.
What does the area look like and what challenges does it face?
Within the Draft NPF4, the Southern action area includes (in broad terms):
- The Scottish Borders
- Dumfries and Galloway
We have set out below a selection of data insights related to this area, using maps and other key data.
These snippets of information are intended to give some insight into what makes this area unique.
We also outline some of the challenges facing the area, and provide some additional background to Draft NPF4's proposed approach.
Carbon emissions
Net emissions in the area are moderate, but would be significantly higher without the impact of land use
Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the main greenhouse gas, accounting for about 81 per cent of the UK greenhouse gas emissions in 2018.
The map shows net Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions per square kilometre for each Local Authority area. It shows that net CO2 emissions from the south of Scotland are low, especially when compared to the central belt.
Net carbon dioxide emissions per kilometre squared
CO2 emissions per km2, in tonnes CO2
> 5 - 13.7
> 2.5 - 5
> 1 - 2.5
0 - 1
Looking in more detail, we can see that the emissions generated by transport, household, and industry are being partly offset by land use
| Sector (Kt CO2) | Dumfries and Galloway | Scottish Borders |
|---|---|---|
| Domestic | 344 | 230 |
| Industry | 96 | 47 |
| Commercial | 23 | 13 |
| Public Sector | 266 | 217 |
| Transport | 546 | 243 |
| Land use, Land use change, and Forestry | -339 | -49 |
Peatlands
Large areas of forestry and peatland act as a carbon sink
The area has significant areas of forestry and peatland which act as a carbon sink and form the basis of future investment opportunities.
For example, the map shows areas of peatland in Scotland, including large areas across the south.
Peatland stores vast amounts of carbon - twice as much as all the world’s forests.
Peatland restoration not only presents a key opportunity to offset carbon emissions, it also provides a strong basis for future generations of rural employment.
Areas of Peatland
Peatland
Wind farms
Wind farms offer further opportunity for reducing emissions
Communities here also contribute significantly to national efforts to reduce emissions through the area’s substantial output from onshore wind farms.
The map shows proposals for wind farm locations in Scotland, using data from 2019.
It shows a large number of sites across the south of Scotland – both those that have already been installed, and those still in the planning stages.
Wind Farm Proposals Scotland (2019)
Application
Scoping
Installed
Approved
Population change
Population decline is expected in the west, while the population itself is growing older
Despite having high levels of wellbeing and high quality of life, the area has experienced population decline in recent years this is projected to continue towards the west of the area.
Predicted population change 2018-2043
Large growth (More than 10,000)
Moderate growth (between 1,000 and 9,999)
Steady population (change of less than 1000)
Moderate decline (between 1,000 and 9,999)
Large decline (More than 10,000)
| Local Authority | Projected change | Change as a percentage |
|---|---|---|
| Dumfries and Galloway | -12,504 | -8% |
| Scottish Borders | 868 | 1% |
By 2043 every Local Authority in Scotland will be home to more people aged 65+, compared to today, and the south of Scotland is no exception.
For example the Scottish Borders Council is expected to have 30% more people aged 65+ by the year 2043.
Projected percentage population change, 2018 - 2043: Aged 65+
Projected growth in population
> 40% - 59%
> 30% - 40%
> 20% - 30%
11% - 20%
| Local Authority | Projected Change | Projected change as a percentage |
|---|---|---|
| Dumfries and Galloway | 8,089 | 21% |
| Scottish Borders | 8,432 | 30% |
Potential impact
These changes will affect the demand for infrastructure and services like housing, education, transport, and healthcare, and we must support these communities to prepare for and avoid the potential negative effects.
Rurality
The area is rural in nature
Much of the area is rural in character with small settlements and many rural homes, farms and smallholdings.
The map shows the locations of settlements of more than 500 people. There is a clear difference between the south of Scotland and the central belt, with the south having a significantly more sparse population.
Settlements of over 500 people
Settlement boundaries
Dumfries and Galloway and the Scottish Borders
The economy
Wages are low across the area
The area’s economy is dependent on low wage and public sector employment and this presents challenges for building a wellbeing economy.
The map shows the average hourly wage earned by residents of each Local Authority.
As the map shows, both Dumfries and Galloway and Scottish Borders have an average hourly wage that is significantly lower than the national average.
Average hourly wage, by Local Authority
Median gross hourly wage (home location)
> £15.90 - £20.20
> £14.10 - £15.90
> £13.10 - £14.10
£11.50 - £13.10
| Local Authority | Median Hourly Wage |
|---|---|
| Dumfries and Galloway | £11.55 |
| Scottish Borders | £12.77 |
| Scottish average | £14.21 |
What does the draft NPF4 propose for the area?
The Draft NPF4 proposes that priorities for the Southern action area include creating liveable and connected places which benefit from further investment and innovation.
Scottish Borders Council and Dumfries and Galloway Council have been exploring an integrated vision for their future development that forms the basis of their early indicative regional spatial strategy. This has the potential to link with the Borderlands Inclusive Growth Deal which involves English local authorities close to the border.
The Draft NPF4 aims to bring these visions together to set out a coherent plan that addresses the collective strengths and challenges for the area and set out strategic priorities of national significance
You can use the link below to find out more by reading the full Draft NPF4.
The Draft National Planning Framework 4
Read the draft on gov.scotLast Updated: 07 Jun 2023